Crypto Top 10s (October 9th): Bitcoin up but becalmed, volatility at 2018 low, ETH price fights back

Here’s a look at the performance of the Top 10 cryptocurrencies – by 24h trading volume – on the TradingView chart, as well as winners and losers across the board.

Headlines

Crypto markets up slightly, but becalmed

Bitcoin saw a lift yesterday, but continues to trade within a $400-wide channel

 Volatility dives to 2018 lows, lowest BTC volatility ever was this day in 2016

Ethereum back to last week’s price levels, XRP can’t break $0.50

Top 10 winners and losers by price change

 

Updated at 9.20am (UK GMT+1) October 5th, 2018..

The Top 10, as of 6.15am (GMT+1) October 5th, 2018 looked like this…

Crypto Top 10 by Traded Volume, chart by Trading View

Overview

With much chatter among crypto traders regarding the somewhat becalmed nature of the market over recent days, the last 24hrs of price movement among the Top 10 most traded cryptos has reflected that – both on the charts of Trading View and the aggregated results of CryptoCompare.

According to TradingView, the movement across the whole market has been generally positive in the last day or so, with $3bn added to the market cap of the sector as a whole, taking it to $203bn in total. In terms of longer trends, that leaves the capitalisation of crypto down around $1.5bn from where it was a week ago, up around $27bn from where it stood on September 9th, down $27bn from its level of $230bn six months ago (April 9th), and up around $65bn from where it stood exactly a year ago ($138bn). 

Bitcoin’s share of that market cap, known as its ‘dominance’, has lifted slightly over the past few days and now sits just below 58%. Ethereum takes the second biggest share, at around 11.5%, with XRP dropping away slightly to around 9.5%.  

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BTCUSD on BitFinex, chart by TradingView

 Bitcoin (BTC) stands at $6,672 at the time of writing, having seen a sharp rise in a brief period of time yesterday afternoon (GMT+1). That lift took the price from around $6,600 to $6,700 in around an hour of trading before profit taking appears to have supressed demand and the price dropped back to new support around $50 higher than it started. Another calm period of low-volume then ensued, leaving Bitcoin to move within a limited $50 band above $6,650.

As we have noted on several occaisions in recent weeks, generally low trading volumes have seen Bitcoin’s price move relatively little for long periods, punctuated by the kind of sharper up-or-down movements we saw yesterday as volume is suddenly injected into the markets. Taking a longer term view, we can see that – save for a few hours here and there – BTC has generally traded within a $600 band between support at $6,200 and resistance and $6,800. Indeed, for the vast majority of the last month, its range of movement has been limited between $6,400 and $6,800.

While Bitcoin is undoubtedly the most stable on the non-tethered cryptocurrencies, this is not the level of calmness that we’ve been used to seeing in the markets over the last year. Indeed, looking at the price volatility as a metric, we can see that it has been hitting low points for 2018 as of late.

Bitcoin Volatility during 2018, chart by The Bitcoin Volatility Index

We can see the massive drop-off in the 30-day BTC volatility that has taken place in the last week – usually an indication of low volumes combined with price stability, both things we have seen in ‘abundance’ during October. Longer indicators also chart a steady decline though the year as the price oscillations of the bellwether crypto have become ever less-pronounced, and volumes of trading have declined to something close to year lows over the weekend just gone.

BTCUSD on BitFinex through 2018, chart by TradingView

Those looking for any kind of indicator in this could take note of the fact that the last time Bitcoin was becalmed in this kind of manner, and the 30-day volatility was this low, was at the start of May 2017. At that point Bitcoin was worth around $1,400, lest we forget, but the next six weeks saw it more than double in price – and make its first crossing of the $3,000 mark on June 11th.

Interestingly, if we looking back to Bitcoin’s lowest ever period of 30-day volatility, we find it at down at 0.75 on this day in 2016. By year’s end, BTC was close to crossing the $1,000-mark for the first time, which it did on January 2nd, 2017.

If you like omens, that’s gotta be a good one, right?

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In other news among the Top 10 cryptos, Ethereum (ETH) now sits at $230 – which sees it drag itself back to roughly where it was a week ago. Having been buoyed yesterday by a sympathetic boost in the wake of Bitcoin, and having been as low as £216 in the last seven days, it has been re-testing resistance at $232 – and summarily failing to break through that ceiling.

ETHUSD on BitFinex

XRP, for its part, is still down below the $0.50 mark. Trading yesterday saw as sharp early pick-up in demand push it towards, and then later try to surpass that point. The enthusiam dropped away later, however, pulling the price back down to around $0.49 on BitFinex.

Thus it’s unsurprising that there’s been a correction this week, that has seen XRP drop around 10% over seven days and back towards the $50-mark, a point it has oscillated around on several occasions since April. The development and onboarding of new customers to xRapid and RippleNet will be closely watched in the coming months as XRP’s army of dedicated investors closely examine the real-world performance of the crypto they appear so evangelical about.

We can also see on the chart a 0.07% drop in the value of Tether (USDT) – a worrying development for a currency that is meant to be locked to the value of the US dollar, and therefore should show no movement on that chart… ever. Of course the reality of its current situation reflects doubts over stability of the stablecoin – and its partner-but-not, BitFinex. At the time of writing, the so-called Premium on buying a single Bitcoin with USDT as opposed to dollars is around $75, according to a site that tracks it.

The question now is: at what point does Tether’s position as the ‘go-to’ brand-leader stablecoin option become at risk because of that market-driven price differential and the rise of competition from Circle, Gemini and others? And, with BitFinex experiencing problems with its fiat banking still, at what point would customers jettisoning USDT for other options see it struggling even more?

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Finally, also of note is Tron (TRX) which, despite being down on the chart listing has been the beneficiary of a significant boost across the last couple of days – thanks to some good upgrade publicity with the move to its new Odyssey 3.1 protocol, and news of a collaboration with Binance.



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Outside Top 10:

Here are Top 10 gainers in terms of price over the last 24hrs…

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Here are the Top 10 losers.